Talking Politics with Justin Schrager Jan. 1 - Feb. 15

I'm glad she's changed her mind.  For two reasons:

1.  It's important for voters to hear from both candidates as much as possible, especially in a forum where they're forced to compare and contrast their ideas and qualifications. etc, etc, etc...

2.  I wanted to write about this dopey controversy last week, but didn't get a chance.  Yesterday's announcement re-opens the door for me to do that.

Maybe you don't remember how all of this started.  It's not because of some sort of scheduling conflict, or a decision not to take on Barack Obama face to face again.  No.  This stems back to a throw away comment made by MSNBC anchor David Shuster, who said it seemed like the Clintons were "pimping out" their daughter, by having her make phone calls to democratic super delegates, to drum up support for her mother.

Cue the fake outrage.

The Clintons said the comment was out of bounds. The National Organization of Women called it offensive. Shuster was forced to issue an on air apology, and was then suspended for two weeks.

What a bunch of crap.

Did Shuster use a poor choice of words?  Certainly.  But not because what he said was offensive, it's because what he said was lazy.  He couldn't think of anything better to say, so he went to the pop culture glossary and picked out an "edgy" phrase to make his point.  But was he calling Chelsea Clinton a hooker?   Obviously not.

And the fact that NOW was first in line to blast him?  Are they really fighting for feminism, or are they taking any opportunity to turn their preferred candidate into a victim, in order to score some cheap points?

(Huggy Bear WAS a pimp.  His picture comes from starskyandhutchonline.com)

2/14/2008

Ahh, Valentine's Day.

For some, it's a chance to reaffirm their love through gifts and romantic dinners.  For others, it's a chance to defrost a frozen chicken pot pie and watch reruns of "Everybody Loves Raymond" on the couch in their underwear.

Love means never having to say you're sorry, even if you've decided to publicly support a different presidential candidate than your significant other.  And that seems to be happening an awful lot this year.

It started with the Rangels.  Charlie, the dean of New York's Congressional delegation, has been one of Hillary Clinton's biggest supporters.  His wife, Alma, has come out in support of Barack Obama.

Arnold Schwarzenegger was one of the first major politicians to back John McCain.  Meanwhile, his wife, Maria Shriver, is MC-ing Obama events throughout California.

The race has even driven a wedge between Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul Jabaar.  Magic has been campaigning for Hillary, while Kareem appears in this impressive Obama production.

There is one couple who has stood firm throughout the entire campaign season, though.  Chuck Norris has remained by Mike Huckabee's side from day one.  But, everytime someone from the campaign says the former Arkansas Governor has a chance to win the Republican nomination, it becomes more clear that there are some cracks in their relationship with reality.


(pictures: My dinner comes from nestle's website. Showtime comes from allposters.com)

2/13/2008

The momentum has swung back and forth so many times during the Democratic race, that I'm not sure who's really on top.

After Iowa, we were told voters were sending a message about change by voting for Obama and Edwards.  Then New Hampshire happened, and we learned that Hillary Clinton was going to win.  And that's how its gone the whole time, back and forth, with momentum shifting at nearly every turn.

The latest has Obama playing the part of front runner, following yesterday's sweep of the Potomac Primaries.  His campaign manager has even come out and said Hillary can't catch up. 

But what happens when voters go to the polls in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania?  If those states vote heavily in favor of Hillary, does she step back into the lead? 

All this prognosticating has proven to be a fool's errand, with opinions changing like the direction of the wind.  I've had enough. 

Who is going to win?  I'm not sure, and that's the most honest answer anyone can give.  




2/8/2008

6001-6001

That's how the democratic primary results shook out in Syracuse Tuesday Night.  Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama got the exact same number of votes.

Yes, this is an incredibly close race and it shows no signs of clearing up anytime soon.   And so, we get to learn about another arcane process within our representative democracy: the brokered convention.

What is it?  Good question. A brokered convention is when the party nomination is decided on the floor of the convention, as opposed to during primary and caucus season.  It's how Jimmy Smits won the democratic nomination during the second to last season of the West Wing.  It involves back room deals, and decisions made by super delegates and party elders.  It will make for great TV, but not necessarily great democracy.  In 1924, it took 103 ballots at the convention, before the party picked a winner.  It opens the doors for party power brokers to make deals that help themselves as much as anyone else.  It could turn John Edwards into a king maker, because whoever gets his delegates may end up taking the nomination. 

But here's another possibility.  Let's say the party is hopelessly deadlocked.  Neither the Clinton camp nor the Obama camp will give an inch.  Well, that could open the door for someone else to step in and unite the party.  Perhaps it's someone who didn't want to deal with all the hassles of a two year campaign, but feels like they still want to serve the public.  And that's when Al Gore may all of a sudden become a factor in the Democratic Party again. 

It's unlikely, and there's virtually no chance anyone would let the situation get that far, but it's definitely an interesting thought.

(Adlai Stevenson won the last brokered convention, in 1952.  This picture is from hudsonlibrary.org)

2/7/2008

Brace yourselves.  I'm about to compare Rush Limbaugh to Rachel McAdams. 

In the last few weeks, the Republican Party has devolved into high school social politics, with Limbaugh taking on the role as most popular girl in school.  You remember her. Everyone wanted to be her friend, even though, secretly, no one actually liked her.  Its the role, Ms. McAdams played in the movie, "Mean Girls". 

You see, Rush and his friends don't like John McCain, and they've begun doing everything they can to ruin his reputation.  And since everyone else is scared to rub them the wrong way, the pile-on has begun.  No one is immune.  Party elder Bob Dole sent Limbaugh a letter, defending his former Senate colleague, McCain.  Did that calm the situation?  No, it just made it worse.  Mitt Romney turned around and attacked Bob Dole. 

But apparently, all this yelling and foot stomping has had little impact among actual voters.  The Arizona Senator keeps rolling, and Romney has fallen by the wayside.  He dropped out of the race today. So, maybe Limbaugh is yelling and no one is listening.

At the end of Mean Girls, Rachel McAdams gets run over by a bus.  What does John McCain drive again?

 

(lot of picture credits today.  First of, thanks to Rachel-McAdams.net. The Limbaugh picture comes from his website. The bus picture comes from 4president.us. Thanks to everyone) 


2/6/2008

"It is a tale … full of sound and fury; signifying nothing"

That quote, from Macbeth, kind of sums up my feelings about last night.  If Shakespeare is too high brow for you, I'll paraphrase Guns n' Roses.

"What's so Super about Tuesday anyway?"

All the hoopla, all the numbers, and we're exactly where we started.  Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are still battling it out for the Democratic nomination, and John McCain looks like he's pulling away on the G-O-P side.

So, neither race is decided yet, and it will come down to the next few states who hold primaries.

Now, imagine you're an official in one of the dozen or so states that rushed to push up your elections to February 5th, because you were scared of losing relevance.  It turns out, your state may have had a bigger impact, if you had left well enough alone.

(picture is from imdb.com)
 
2/5/2008

Who's winning tonight? 

On the Republican side, it looks like McCain had a good night, but not great. In fact, his best news may be the wins by Mike Huckabee, because those pull important delegates from Mitt Romney. In fact, the Huck won more delegates than Romney today.

It's also been a big night for Hillary.  Obama actually won more states, but with the exception of Illinois, none of his wins came in big states.  Clinton took California, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts. 

Here's a number that doesn't actually mean anything, but it certainly demonstrates how close this election is.  ABC News has tallied up all the votes cast in all the democratic races today, and the difference is just about 17 thousand votes. Out of more than ten million.  Incredible.

 (They look close in that picture.  They're even closer in the voting booth) 

2/5/2008

Have you seen Bill Richardson tonight?  Take a look:

 

Remember Horatio Sanz from Saturday Night Live?



(the Richardson picture comes from the Albuquerque Journal. Sanz from viewimages.com)

2/5/2008

What's up with John McCain? The talk all week has been that he would have trouble with conservatives.  And the numbers are bearing that out.  ABC news says the Arizona Senator is down 11 points among conservatives nationwide, and they make up 64 percent of all GOP voters.  





2/5/2008

The only local race left to call for the Democrats is Connecticut. So far, it's too close to call, and there may have been some shenanigans courtesy of the Clintons.  But not the Clinton you would expect.  Apparently, Chelsea may have broken the law  by bringing some coffee to poll workers in New Haven. 


2/5/2008
Here's how the WINS broadcast booth at ABC News shaped up.  It was our own Paul James and Larry Kanter, with a pair of guests, Clinton supporter Robert Zimmerman and NY Sun columnist Nick Wapshott.
.

Speaking of Robert Zimmerman, I'm trying to get someone on the air to try to sneak in some Bob Dylan jokes.  Obama is doing well, ask him if the times are-a changing.  Iraq becomes a huge issue, mention "Masters of War".  It seems simple enough. But no one is taking the bait.

(this picture is from bobdylan.com.  I guess I should have mentioned that his real name is Robert Zimmerman. Now the jokes make sense.)





2/5/2008

Never mind. We found dinner.  It was in a different room.  Also, there's an election going on.  A few more states have been called. Nothing surprising yet.

2/5/2008

OK. We have run in to our first major problem here.  Apparently, we didn't act fast enough, and the food is essentially gone.  There are a couple of big salads left.  Who wants salad?  I saw some people eating pasta, but we missed out on that.  Oh well.

(this is from paxfood.com.  The actual salads look less appetizing)




2/5/2008

We're at ABC News Headquarters right now.  WINS is broadcasting live from here tonight.  The first polls have closed, and Barack Obama already has a win.  The Illinois Senator took Georgia. Still too close to call for the Republicans, and ABC says its a three way race.  The Peach State is the first state to close its polls.  So far, its calm, but come 8 o'clock, the ABC newsroom is going to be buzzing. 

2/5/2008

In case you were wondering....

The New York State Board of Elections says they didn't see any major problems as a result of this morning's Giants Parade.

There had been some concern that the location of the parade route, coupled with the tens of thousands of people in attendance, could have had some effect on turnout.

There was even a rumor being floated out there, that Mayor Bloomberg planned the parade for today, thinking it would eat into a demographic who is expected to vote overwhelmingly for Barack Obama.  Thus, knocking him from the race and opening the door for a strong independent candidate like Mike Bloomberg.  Obviously, that is ridiculous.  But either way, it didn't happen.

And remember, I picked the Giants. (you have to scroll down a bit to find my prediction. but while you're there, give the whole site a read. It's good stuff.  And while we're on the subject, my brother wrote about the game on deadspin, so check that out as well).

2/5/2008

We have our first story about voting problems, and this one has some star power.  Apparently, Oprah helped make sure an Illinois woman could vote, despite the absence of an election judge.  They don't call her the most powerful woman in the world for nothing.  




2/5/2008

It's time for another lesson in Super Tuesday minutia.  

What's up with proportional primaries vs. winner-take-all primaries?

Glad you asked.  It has to do with delegate.. umm.. delegation.  Most of today's Republican races are winner take all, which means the candidate who takes the popular vote gets all the delegates for this summer's nominating convention.  But the majority of the Democratic races are proportional, meaning the dispersal of delegates is dependent on the percentage of the vote each candidate gets. Got it? It will make more sense as the night drags on. 

2/5/2008

You know how networks always project winners of elections before all the votes are counted? I always wondered how that happened.  I figured it was some sort of statistical equation that I couldn't possible understand. Yesterday, I went to the source to find out, by interviewing Daniel Merkle, who runs the ABC Decision Desk. I was right. It is some sort of statistical equation I can't understand.  Merkle leads a team of Ph D's (That's doctorates, not playa hater degrees, though I guess they aren't mutually exclusive).  They factor in exit polling, previous history, and a host of other factors to come up with a winner.  They'll be giving their calculators a work out tonight.


2/5/2008

We haven't heard anything official about voter turnout yet, but I'll give a quick unofficial estimate: Pretty good

When i voted, at the Manh School on the Upper East Side, the place was packed.  Not so much that I had to wait on a long line, though.  Its a simple ballot in New York. Just the candidates; no side issues, no local elections. 

2/5/2008

Good morning, voters.

You probably went to bed early last night, because you were all tuckered out from celebrating the Super Bowl.  Don’t worry, I had your back.

 I stayed up and watched the Late Night shows to let you know how the candidates did, during their last appearances before Super Tuesday.

Hillary Clinton was on Letterman.  As happens from time to time, Dave put on his serious interviewer cap and asked some excellent questions about poverty and dirty politics and Hillary’s relationship with Barack Obama.  And she did well, answering in a genuine manner while remembering that, first and foremost, The Late Show is a comedy show.  One complaint, though.  Dave asked about a possible Clinton/Obama ticket.  And like every other candidate who’s appeared on a talk show this year, Hillary joked that she was considering a Clinton/Letterman ticket.  Guess what.  It was funny the first time. Now it’s just mindless pandering.  The man asked a question. Give him a straight answer, or come up with a new way to joke about it.

Over on NBC, Mike Huckabee joined with Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart to make a guest appearance during a skit on Late Night with Conan O’Brien.  Has anyone benefited more from the writers’ strike than the former Arkansas Governor?  He’s been a staple on the talk show circuit for the last couple of months.  He was with Leno on his first night back, and since then, has appeared with almost everyone else. That may actually be part of the reason he’s managed to survive in the race as long as he has.

But the most important thing that happened on TV last night didn’t involve a candidate.  Craig Ferguson brought his cameras with him over the weekend, to document his citizenship ceremony.  Ferguson is Scottish, but came to the US to follow his comedy dreams.  And he got visually emotional while taking his oath of citizenship, as did his fellow immigrants, who all stood before the camera and proclaimed “I am an American”. So, keep that in mind today. As news stations and websites cram numbers and statistical models and projections down your throat, its still about one person one vote.  And it means a lot to have that privilege.
 
(Ferguson pic is from cbs.com.  Manilow is just an added bonus)

2/2/2008

You're going to vote, right?

I shouldn't have to convince you.

But, I'm full service.  So, if you're still on the fence about whether or not you're going to go to the polls on Tuesday, allow me to present this test.

You should vote if you are any of the following:

male, female, young, old, middle aged, rich, poor, lower middle class, middle class, upper middle class, employed, unemployed, underemployed, retired, black, white, Hispanic, any other ethnicity, straight, gay, healthy, chronically ill, insured, uninsured, in the military, know anyone in the military, have seen a movie about the military, if you own a car, if you don't own a car, if you drive, if you fly, if you eat meat, if you're a vegetarian, if you're a vegan, if you go outside, if you stay in, if you're single, if you're married, if you're divorced, if you're a parent, if you're a grandparent, if you have parents, if you own a home, if you want to own a home, if you ever owned a home, if you're alive, if you're dead.

There you go.  If none of these apply to you, feel free to sleep in Tuesday morning.  Otherwise, get out and vote.

(Don't you want to be cool like that kid in the picture?  He's from rockthevote.com, and he has an awesome sweatshirt)

2/1/2008

Wow. That was surprising.

Hillary and Obama headed to LA for their first one on one debate last night, and they actually had a calm, respectful discussion of the issues, without the angry rhetoric and personal attacks we've come to expect during this campaign season.  Senator Obama even pulled out Senator Clinton's chair for her at the end of the night.

What happened?

Was it the Hollywood crowd that inspired them?  There hasn't been such a star studded crowd at the Kodak Theatre since the last time there was a crowd at the Kodak Theatre.  Jason Alexander, Steven Spielberg, Pierce Brosnan, and even Stevie Wonder were on hand. (incidentally, Stevie had really good seats.  You would think he would be the one guy organizers could have stuck towards the back of the theatre without getting a complaint.)

Maybe it was the fact that John Edwards had been removed from the mix. Over the last few debates, he had emerged as the voice of reason, stepping in when the other two went too far off track, to bring the discussion back to the issues.  Plus, his supporters are now up for grabs, so Obama and Clinton may have been trying to get on their good sides. 

But I think the most important factor may be what happened the night before at the Reagan Library. John McCain and Mitt Romney really went at each other. The conversation was tense and heated and full of invective.  An undecided voter who watched that, and then tuned in last night for the love-fest between Hillary and Obama, couldn't help but notice the difference.  And chances are, that voter came away feeling much better about voting for a Democrat than either of the Republican frontrunners.

2/1/2008


Remember Joe Lieberman? Well, times have certainly changed for the Connecticut Senator. In 2000, he was the Democratic nominee for Vice President.  This year, he's endorsing John McCain.  I talked to him about it this morning. Take a LISTEN.  I'm Multimedia.



1/31/2008

Super Bowl or Super Tuesday?

Why choose just one?

Football and politics have a long history together, going back to Gerald Ford playing football at Michigan, Richard Nixon drawing up plays for the Redskins in his spare time, and, according to this picture, Ronald Reagan pegging spirals at people in the Oval Office.

But this weekend, the two are coming together like never before.  We have a candidate representing the Giants (Hillary), one representing the Pats (Romney), and even one representing the neutral field where they'll face off (McCain.)

Fox has decided to sprinkle campaign coverage into its ridiculously long pre-game show.  That means you'll get some Bill Hemmer with your Bill Belicheck.

There had also been some talk about candidates buying ad time during the game, but with 30 second ads going for millions of dollars a piece, they quickly abandoned that idea.

And the connections won't end when the final whistle sounds.  If the Patriots win, Boston Mayor Tom Menino says the victory parade will be held Tuesday, at the same time as the Massachusetts Primary.  That should go well.

Will that really be an issue?  I'm not sure.  In fact, I wrote a pretty wishy-washy preview of the game for another website. (And how about linking to a website that links back to you?  I just blew your mind.)

The only thing missing now are prop bets for Super Tuesday.  We should come up with a few.  What color pants suit will Hillary wear?  Who will John McCain thank first in his acceptance speech?   What song will Tom Petty close his halftime show with?  Well, that one may only work on Sunday.


(The Reagan as Namath picture comes from the University of Texas website.  Tom Petty is from Rolling Stone.com)


1/30/2008

Let's say you're a high school senior.  You think you're Harvard Material.  Other people say you have a pretty good chance of getting in there, though your extra-curriculars are a little lacking and you didn't always get the best recommendations.  Still, You're convinced you should be a Harvard Man, so when it comes time to apply, that's the only form you fill out.  And then you don't get in.  What next?

Rudy Giuliani didn't have a safety school. He put all his eggs into the Florida basket, and when he lost there, he had no place else to turn.  It was Sunshine, sunset.

In the decades to come, Giuliani's effort will become the model for the exact wrong way to run a modern campaign. 20 years ago, it may have worked wonders.  Back then, the nightly news anchor would come on and tell you who won what primary, and then you would read some analysis in the paper.  So, someone spending all of his time in your state would monopolize the coverage, and have the best chance at convincing you to vote for him.  But this is not 1988.  

Thanks to three 24 hour news channels, and endless websites dedicated to coverage, there is no such thing as local focus.  Giuliani's decision to skip Iowa, and his failure in New Hampshire and Michigan knocked him off the front pages all over the country, including Florida.  And he was an afterthought, or worse, a joke on CNN and MSNBC.

Rudy also seemed to be dependent on all the former New Yorkers who now live in Florida.   Two problems there.  He wasn't an overly popular guy here before September 11th, and a number of former New Yorkers who live in Florida are Democrats, who couldn't vote in the closed Republican Primary.

The 9-11-centric message didn't help either.  In recent months, the country's focus shifted to the economy.  Giuliani could not, or simply would not, adjust.  Unless he was making a weak baseball joke. During his speech last night, he quoted Yogi Berra.  He handed out autographed baseballs to all the reporters on his campaign plane.  He campaigned with Johnny Damon. Enough.  We get it.  You like the Yankees. (even though you rooted for the Red Sox in the World Series).

And now it's over.  Not with a bang, but with a whimper.

(Harvard Crest is from Harvard's website.)

1/29/2008

And once again. It comes down to Boston against New York.

Of course, I'm speaking of the Kennedys against the Clintons.  What did you think I meant?

Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy, along with his niece, Caroline, have endorsed Barack Obama instead of longtime family friend, Hillary Clinton.

Senator Kennedy says he was swayed, at least in part, by the negative campaigning done by former President Bill Clinton.

Apparently, Bill's breaking the rules, because ex-Presidents aren't supposed to campaign so vigorously for a candidate until after the nomination is sewn up.  That's garbage.  How can Bill Clinton be considered a typical ex-President during this campaign?  And how can there already be rules in place?  We've never seen a situation like this before.

The closest parallel would be the way George H.W. Bush campaigned for his son in 2000.  But there is a major difference there.  The first President Bush was not nearly as popular among Republicans as President Clinton is among most Democrats. Plus, how often do we hear from candidates' parents? 

If you want to attack Bill Clinton for going too negative, that's fine.  If you think he's dragging down the entire process through his attacks on Barack Obama, that's a completely legitimate point.  But if you think he should be held to some sort of higher standard because he used to be President, I disagree.  Because in this case, he's a husband first, and a President after that.

1/27/2008 

1/23/2007

I invented a game.  It's called look at this picture and guess if the caption is about:

a) the candidate
b) the celebrity he's with
c) both of them



BEFORE THE SEASON GOT UNDERWAY, I WAS THE CLEAR NUMBER ONE GUY.  BUT THEN I GOT OFF TO A SLOW START, AND ALL OF A SUDDEN ANOTHER GUY SHOWED UP WHO WAS MORE VERSATILE AND HAD MORE OF A SPARK, SO HE TOOK MY SPOT, AND I WAS SHOVED OFF INTO THE CORNER.

Give up? The answer is C, and, yes, I did just compare John McCain to Melky Cabrera.

Is Johnny Damon really the guy you want endorsing you?  First of all, when asked why he chose to appear at a Giuliani event, the Yankee leadoff man said he figured he owed Rudy, because off all the visits he had paid to the team over the years. 

Secondly, remember in October, when Mr. #1 Yankee Fan said he was rooting for the Red Sox in the World Series?  That made a lot of people angry.  You don't jump back and forth between the Red Sox and the Yankees.  Unless you're Johnny Damon. He was the lead idiot when Boston won the 2004 World Series, and then vowed he would never play for the Yankees.  Whoops.

Rudy's mired in fourth place in Florida right now.  To carry the baseball analogy a bit further, that's the Baltimore Orioles.  And as they've proven over the years, it's gonna take more than a high profile center fielder to make up ground on the frontrunners. 

1/22/2007

Wolf Blitzer and Suzanne Malveux may have been asking the questions, but during last night's democratic debate in South Carolina, it was John Edwards who served as the moderator.

The former Senator has taken on an interesting role over the last couple of weeks.  Some members of his own staff have even told the New York Times that they don't expect him to win any primaries.  So, why is he still in the race?  

Part of it may be ego.  Part of it may be the fact that he's essentially been running for President since 2004, and doesn't know what else to do with himself. He and his wife, Elizabeth, have said they have no plan B. 

But I think it may be the fact that he's finally found his niche in this year's democratic race.  Every time the two leading candidates fall too far off the rails of policy, and get caught up in personal accusations and innuendo, Edwards has been there to pull them back.

When race was raised last night, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama traded barbs over who has done more and who has met with whom, until Edwards chimed in and reminded everyone that issues of race really boil down to issues of poverty, and he brought the conversation back around to the economy.

He's been doing that a lot lately.  Fighting for airtime, and then using it to remind everyone what they're supposed to be doing there.

It wasn't the role he intended to take on, but maybe it's the one John Edwards fills best, and it's the one from which he can make the most impact during this election season.


1/19/2007

You can blanket the state in flyers, buy ads on every tv station to air every 20 minutes, and you can make a speech in every far flung city and town.  But no matter how many minds you change or voters you inspire, there's one thing you can't compete with.

It's snowing in South Carolina!

Nothing can throw off political expectations like bad weather.  Because no one wants to go out in the rain or snow.  Especially on a Saturday.

Forecasters expect up to four inches of snow in northern and western parts of the state.  Those also happen to be the regions where Mike Huckabee has his most support.  Fred Thompson too.  Ironic, isn't it?  Thompson has been dogged the entire campaign because he doesn't have a sunny disposition.  But his campaign may be dealt its final blow by stormy weather. (Maybe it's ironic in more of an Alanis Morissette way, but still).

1/18/2007

How about a couple of quick hits on the eve of two big votes.

First, let's talk about this lawsuit in Nevada.  A group of democrats sued because the state party allowed for special caucus sights on the Vegas strip, so shift workers would be able to cast ballots.

What's the big deal? 

Well, Those shift workers include hotel employees, casino dealers and restaurant waitstaffs.  They're all members of the same culinary workers' union.. which has thrown its support behind Barack Obama.

The lawsuit was filed by members of a teachers' union which supports Hillary Clinton.  And it was filed just a couple of days after the culinary workers union made it's endorsement.  So, it appeared to be an effort by the Clinton campaign to nullify a major block of Obama voters.

Well, the Clinton camp came out and denied any involvement, and basically denounced the law suit.  It doesn't really matter, a judge threw the case out, and the special caucuses will go on as scheduled.

Meanwhile, in South Carolina, Mitt Romney got into a fight at a Staples.

Seriously, take a look.

The whole thing revolved around an AP reporter asking the former Massachusetts Governor about the role a prominent lobbyist plays in his campaign.

You may be shocked to see a Presidential candidate making a campaign stop at an office superstar, but that just means you don't know Mitt.  Before he was a politician, he ran a management consulting firm.  And among the companies he helped steer towards success was Staples.

But his fiery attitude among the bulk printer paper and five for a dollar notebook bundles may not be doing the trick.  A new poll has him third in South Carolina, behind John McCain and Mike Huckabee.
 

1/17/2007

The African American vote is essential in South Carolina.  Latinos will decide Nevada. Older women put Hillary over the top in New Hampshire. Evangelicals were key in Iowa and unemployed auto workers gave Mitt Romney his win in Michigan.

It seems like politics often comes down to microtrending among specific demographics. That's fine.  But someone's being left out.  ME!

Advertisers covet my demographic, but no one seems to care what men in their late 20's and early 30's want in their next President.  So, I decided to find out by asking a bunch of my friends.

This is by no means a scientific poll, but who cares. We've already seen how reliable they are during this election season. 

Admittedly, I'm talking about a relatively wide swath of the population, so I'll try to give a little more information on our focus group. Most of them are gainfully employed, though statistically, they could switch careers a few more times before retirement. In fact, a couple already have. They run the full gamet of industries from media to finance to education, plus the arts and engineering. They're all college educated, and about half are either married, or close to it.  There's even a few new fathers in the group. 

And the issue which is of most concern is the Economy, with specific mention of keeping the unemployment rate as low as possible.

I was surprised to find that the war in Iraq and national security in general were lower on most people's list than I expected, often lagging behind health care and energy concerns.

As far as who the group will vote for? The majority say they're undecided, and are looking for someone to inspire them.  But of those who did name a candidate, Most say they're backing Barack Obama, with one person throwing Ron Paul out as a possibility. Those results are obviously skewed by the fact that most of us grew up and still live in democrat heavy regions of the Northeast.

So, candidates, appeal to us.  We're here and we're listening.  

(that picture is from imdb.com. i know there's a girl in there, just don't look at her.)

1/16/2007

This is for Andrew Ing, who raised an excellent question in an email this morning, about why only one party took part in yesterday's primary:

People from Michigan are called Michiganders.  And Michiganders have absolutely no say in who wins this year's Democratic Presidential nomination.  That doesn't seem fair, but they have their own State party leaders to blame for the situation.

You see, they moved their Primary up this year, despite a rule by the Democratic National Committee that no state could hold its vote before February 5th, except for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.  As a result, the DNC stripped Michigan of its delegates, and most of the candidates pulled their names off the ballot, and pledged not to campaign there. 

The same thing happened in Florida.

No such rule exists on the Republican side, which is why Mitt Romney's win last night means so much, and why Rudy Giuliani has put all his eggs into the Florida basket.

Michigan Democratic party officials say they aren't worried, because they expect the eventual nominee to insist on letting the state send delegates to the convention this summer, anyway. 



(this picture is from frictiongoods.com.  They apparently sell clever t-shirts.  or thumbs)

1/15/2007

The next Democratic debate is tonight in Las Vegas.  In advance of that, allow me to present the numerous rhetorical crutches that will be used and abused by the media throng covering the event:

-If someone responds to a question in a politically expedient way, instead of giving a straight forward response, it will be said that they're "hedging their bets"

-if someone gives a straight forward response, instead of a politically sound one, it will be referred to as "rolling the dice"

-if one candidate comes out with a direct challenge to another one, that will be "pushing his/her chips to the middle of the table"

-any grand pronouncement will be known as "going all in"

-the post-debate wrapup will be referred to as "spin city" (it rhymes with sin city.)

-The decisison by NBC not to include Dennis Kucinich will be described as the network "dealing the congressman out"

-and, of course, it will be said that the candidate who puts forward the least impressive performance will hope "what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas".

1/12/2007

Here's what I like about Andrew Bynum.  When he catches the ball in the post, he keeps his hands up, so smaller players can't knock it out of his hands. It's a small thing, but it's an ideal use of natural talent.

Bynum, by the way, is the starting center for the Lakers, and because the Knicks are the Knicks, I'm forced to look elsewhere for good basketball this season.  And that elsewhere has become LA, where the 20 year old New Jersey native is coming into his own as a force down low.

What's this have to do with politics?  Absolutely nothing.  But it brings up a larger point which has had an obvious impact on this year's race.  John McCain is back on top of the national polls, following his win in New Hampshire last week. The experts are trying to explain his return to prominence by crediting his appeal to independents or his long standing ties in the Granite State.  But, I think its much simpler than that.  His appeal comes down to authenticity.  The other candidates have jumped back and forth on issues, shaping their messages to the electorate.  Meanwhile, McCain has stuck to his guns, even on tough issues like Immigration and the Iraq War.  And I think that resonates for people, looking for something genuine in their next President.  John McCain is sticking to his natural talents.

(nba.com: It's fan-tastic. for pictures of Andrew Bynum keeping his hands up)

1/10/2007

Now that we've got Iowa and New Hampshire out of the way, it's time for me to go back to the well.  And so, I present the updated "Talking Politics" Presidential Power Rankings.

1. Hillary Clinton

She's number one with a bullet.  At least, this week.  She fought back the Barack Obama tidal wave and proved that polls aren't the be-all and end-all in New Hampshire. Her win also reminds most of us of a lesson we learned as kids.  Your Mom is always right. The New York Senator rode to victory, thanks to the older women of New Hampshire.  Perhaps her win will force the media to pay attention to a demographic that is generally ignored.

2.  Barack Obama

It's not his fault that the pollsters were completely off base.  He didn't do anything wrong. And the speech he delivered after he finished second was just as inspirational and effective as the one he delivered after winning Iowa.  But he's been endorsed by a major union in Nevada and is expected to do well in South Carolina, so the top spot is still well-within reach

3. John McCain

He wins the prize for biggest jump.  In my last arbitrary list of Power Rankings, McCain was number 8, now number 3.  Why?  Because he's staying above the fray.  In an increasingly negative Republican campaign, the Arizona Senator is doing his best to stay positive.  His win in New Hampshire shows that voters are paying attention to the strategy.

 4. Mike Huckabee

He didn't expect to do well in New Hampshire, and he didn't.  But he won Iowa, and has a great chance in South Carolina, before trying to make a run through the Southern States.  But, seriously, enough with the Chuck Norris.

 
5. Mitt Romney

He's the only Massachusetts politician who has ever lost New Hampshire.  But how can I list the guy with two second place finishes behind two other Republicans who each have a third place finish on their record?  Because all the other candidates hate this guy.  It really seems like other candidates would sacrifice their own chances to make sure Romney doesn't win,

6. John Edwards

He's just about finished.  South Carolina may be his last stand.  

7. Rudy Giuliani

Remember this guy?  The strategy all along has been to ignore Iowa and New Hampshire (or was it?)  Now we get to see if it will work.  But if you're looking for a silver lining, I have one.  Nationally. Mitt Romney has been Rudy's biggest rival.  And despite all the money he's spent, Romney hasn't won anything yet.  So, the opportunity is certainly there for Giuliani to step back up to the plate.  We'll see what happens in Florida.

 8. Ron Paul
 
Every time he speaks, the same two things happen. The public says "Wow, he makes some great points".  And then politicians say "Hey, this guy is nuts. You need to learn more about him". I'm guessing the truth lies somewhere in between.  Either way, his supporters are loud and some of them appear unwashed.

 9. Fred Thompson

He had to fight off rumors that he was dropping out of the race to endorse John McCain,  Now, he says he's drawing a line in the sand in South Carolina, thinking his fellow Southerners may help revive his campaign,  They won't.  Good news for John McCain, who may be getting a pretty big endorsement.

10. Bill Richardson

Yes, he's about to drop out.  By the time you read this, in fact, he may already be gone.  But I still think he'll be the Democrats candidate for VP.  By abandoning the campaign now, he avoids having to turn negative against any of the frontrunners. 

 11. Dennis Kucinich

Ron Paul told Jay Leno that Kucinich is his favorite Democrat in the race.  And he's seen a UFO.

 12. Duncan Hunter

Here's my favorite story of the week.  Hunter called a "major" press conference, and then railed against the media for not covering his campaign.  No one covered the press conference,




1/9/2007

Just some notes before I go..

-In baseball. they say momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher.  I don't know what the political equivalent is.  Maybe Momentum is moderate voters in Charleston, South Carolina?  It doesn't have the same ring to it.  Either way, my point is, this whole thing is far from over.  Iowa and New Hampshire were so early, and so close together. that in some way, it feels like we've reached some end point in the process.  But it's just getting started.

-Will anyone listen to the experts anymore?  Obama, Obama, Obama, Obama... Whoops.  Do last night's results simply reflect New Hampshire's independant streak?  Or do they deliver a stronger message about the media crush not being able to see the forest through the trees.

-And one final thought on New Hampshire, and New England in general.  I went to school in Boston, and I still have friends who I visit up here quite often.  And every trip, I find it harder and harder to leave.  There's a sense of community up here that you don't find anywhere else.  But then I see all these friggin Red Sox hats and I snap out of it pretty quickly. I hate them so much.
1/8/2007

Cougars for Clinton!

Polling data shows it was older women in New Hampshire that put the former First Lady over the top.  In fact, the over 65 set went 57% to 27% in favor of Hillary.

How did everyone get it so wrong?  Were the people of New Hampshire purposely lying to all the pollsters?  Or did they step up to the voting booth with the intention of voting for Obama, but then have second thoughts right before pulling the lever.  Either way, lots of reporters and pundits and experts won't be taking advantage of the continental breakfast at their hotels tomorrow, since they'll already have plenty of egg on their faces.

(This picture is from nytimes.com.  and for some reason, it appeared recently)

1/8/2007

WOW!!!!

The AP says Hillary is the winner.  And she's set to speak in about ten minutes, so the AP is probably right.

1/8/2007

Here's something.  There are news crews here from Australia, Russia, Japan, the aforementioned Canada, even Al Jazeera.  And this is only a primary.  And yet, when some foreign country has an election, we barely mention it.  Why is that?  I've come up with 3 possible reasons.

1.  The Clintons' global standing, and Barack Obama's race and relative newness to the scene make this story worth watching all over the world.

2.  The U-S has such a major footprint in global affairs that every single machination of the political system has ramifications everywhere.

3. We're selfish, and don't care about anyone but ourselves.

It's probably a liitle bit of each.


1/8/2007
 
We're in sort of a lull in the action right now.  The GOP is done, and the Dems are too close to call.  That means all the reporters and news anchors gathered here are in a holding pattern.  It's kind of fun to watch and listen as everyone figures out new and interesting to ways to deliver the same information over and over again.  The good news: 1010 WINS News Director Ben Mevorach has made his way to Obama headquarters in Nashua.  Win or lose for the Illinois Senator, that's guaranteed to be an interesting scene.

1/8/2007

Was everyone wrong?  The polls closed over an hour ago, and still, the democratic race is too close to call.  Something must have changed in people's minds overnight, because when I went to bed last night, and even when I woke up this morning, it looked like Barack Obama was running away with this thing.  And that was also the sense you got on the ground in New Hampshire.  As much as people say they want change, maybe experience really is the most important thing.

1/8/2007

Well, that was quick. ABC news called the New Hampshire primary for John McCain at about 8:05.  or.. 300 seconds after the polls closed.  Mitt Romney finishes second.  Rudy already delivered his concession speech, and now he's off to the airport, so he can hit the ground running tomorrow morning in Florida.

But despite his dismal showing, there may be a silver lining for Giuliani tonight.  Because Mitt Romney has now become the first Massachusetts candidate to ever lose New Hampshire. And coupled with his second place finish in Iowa, tonight's results may start to raise some questions about Romney's national viability.  That may open the window for Rudy to step back through and once again become nationally relevant.  Don't think campaigns can come back from the dead?  Why not check where McCain stood a few months ago.




1/8/2007

Rudy's going to lose, and he's going to lose big. There's really no question about that anymore.  In a three person Republican race up here in New Hampshire, he's number 5.  And at least Ron Paul's people have been enthusiastic.  

But, that was to be expected.  The former Mayor's strategy all along was to essentially ignore Iowa and New Hampshire and instead focus on Florida and the Super Tuesday states.  At least, that's what we were told.  This story may tell a different tale.  Apparently, Rudy was quite actively trying to spread his message to Granite State voters .  They just weren't listening.


1/8/2007

Earlier in the week, the talk was all about whether the Hillary Clinton campaign should try to cut ties with members of Bill Clinton's old inner circle.  Experts were saying she should campaign with a fresh face like Chelsea, but leave her husband and Madeline Albright behind, because they bring up too many bad memories for some people.  Well, things change pretty quickly.  If tonight goes badly for the New York Senator, word is former Bill Clinton advisors James Carville and Paul Begala will join the campaign and help re-work the entire strategy.  

Speaking of old Clinton allies, I just walked past George Stephanopoulos on my way to the bathroom. Not a tall man.

(thanks abc.com... for everything)


1/8/2007

Now, its time to talk turkey.  Well, actually chicken.  In fact, 1010 WINS reporter Glen Schuck tells me it's Chicken Kiev. That's right, the dinner hour has arrived.  And it's quite the spread here at ABC News Headquarters. There was also salad, some tasty rice pilaf and roast beef.  And chocolate pudding for dessert.  I haven't had any of that yet, but I'm very excited for it.

UPDATE:  The chocolate pudding was good.  It had whipped cream and chocolate chips on top.




1/8/2007

Another good sign for Barack Obama.  ABC news is reporting a number of cities throughout the state have more voters than ballots. That's a sign that undeclared voters are coming out of the woodwork.  And the Deputy Secretary of State says most of those extra ballots are democratic.  If you do the math, it seems to indicate indepedant voters have been swept up in the Obama Tsunami, and are coming out to show him support.

Also, Larry David says he'll stop doing Curb Your Enthusiasm if Obama loses.  That show makes me uncomfortable, so I have trouble watching it.  It's unclear if New Hampshire residents agree.

PHOTO GALLERY: Justin Captures N.H. Primary

(this picture is from hbo.com and it makes me cringe a little bit)



1/8/2007

Do not look at the man behind the curtain.

Charlie Gibson just did his ABC radio report a few feet behind me.  And during his campaign coverage, he introduced correspondent Aaron Katersky, who delivered a live report from Manchester.  Guess what.  They were five feet away from each other at the time.

1/8/2007

Hello from the nerve center of ABC News election coverage.  It's the Radisson.

But it's set up like a small media city. There are TV and Radio stations from around the country and around the world (Canada counts as around the world, right?)  We're back in radio row, behind the makeshift newsrooms for ABC World News Tonight and for the Associated Press. Sean Hannity is broadcasting his show from a few feet away.  It's on another station, but you should stick to 1010 WINS.  He was yelling about some showdown he had with Ron Paul supporters at a restaurant last night.  I hadn't heard about it until I got here, but from the way he's going on about it, it's apparently the most important thing that ever happened ever.  

Things are pretty quiet now, but as we get closer to the first polls closing at 7, I'm pretty sure this little media city will become electric.

1/8/2008

Here's the thing.  People in New Hampshire are really nice, and really knowledgeable.  So, when you approach them, they either give you a well thought out articulate answer, or they politely decline your request to speak.  Either way, it's a nice change of pace from New York.

This morning, we headed to the Carol M. Rines Center on Elm Street in Manchester, otherwise known as the Ward 3 polling place.  The most surprising thing to me was how close to the door candidates' supporters are allowed to stand.  Though they weren't shouting at the voters, as much as they were thanking them for coming out.  And really, if you walked up to the door undecided, and then were swayed by a sign, you probably shouldn't be voting anyway.  Or breathing.

Once inside, it looks like any polling place I've ever been in. The process is pretty standard, unless you're an undeclared voter.  In New Hampshire, undeclared means you get to select which primary you take part in.  The voter comes in, tells an official which primary he wants to take part in, registers in that party, votes, and then re-registers as undeclared.

Word is, turn out is really high.  Officials expect half a million people to cast ballots today.  That might have something to do with the weather.  It's about 60 degrees, as evidenced by the fat guy in shorts who showed up to pick the next President.  
Hey, buddy, you see that snow? it's still January.



1/8/2008

The sun is out.  It's 50 degrees.  Ahhhh... New Hampshire in January.

Come election day, politicians and their advisors always have one eye on the electoral map and one on the weather map.  Bad weather means bad turnout, and that could sway a vote more than any speech or photo op.
 
No such problem here, though. In fact, the New Hampshire Secretary of State is expecting record turnout today, especially among Democrats.  Just like Iowa.

And we already have the first returns.  There's a town way up north called Dixville Notch, where the voters cast their ballots at 12:01 AM.  All 16 of them.  The town's voters gather in a hotel ballroom, fill out old fashioned paper ballots, and then a town official counts up the results.  The whole thing takes about 20 minutes.  And the big winners are:  Barack Obama with 7 votes among the Democrats (It's a blowout!) and John McCain with 4 votes among the Republicans.  

The results up in "the Notch" (I don't know if that's what they call it, but they should) don't always serve as an indicator of things to come in the rest of the state.  Wes Clark got the most Democratic votes last time, and Bill Bradley won the primary before that.  But this time, it looks like they've made the right choices.  Obama and McCain certainly appear as if they're heading for a happy night in the Granite State.

1/7/2007

I think I can sum up the difference between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in one anecdote.  During the Clinton event I attended today in Dover, the Senator opened her remarks by apologizing to the 150 people who were turned away, because the gymnasium had already reached capacity.  Fair enough.

Then I saw Obama on TV.  He also had some supporters who couldn't get into his event.  But he didn't just apologize to the people who were left out.  He grabbed a wireless microphone, stepped outside and spoke to all of them. 

He's trying to be the man of the people, and the people are completely on board.  The polls show Obama leading by anywhere between 5 and 15 points.  And for the first time since this election cycle began all those months ago, I'm actually starting to believe he can pull this off.  It turns out "change" is more than just a political buzzword.  People crave something new, and Barack Obama may be what their jonesing for. 


1/7/2008

Dateline: Dover, New Hampshire.  

We headed out early for a Hillary Clinton event in a high school gym sort-of place.  But before i can think critically about our nation's future, I need a good breakfast.  For that, i stopped at Week's Backstreet Kitchen.  Good food, good service, and luckily for me, Good photo op.  Just as I was finishing my fourth cup of coffee (I said it was an early start), one of the waitresses came over and tipped me off that someone whose name starts with "H" might stop in.  HUBERT HUMPHREY? That is exciting.  I already had an idea that something was up because a guy who looked like what I imagine a Hillary Clinton Advance man would look like had already come in and scoped the place out.  So, I waited.  and waited. and waited.  Eventually, General Wesley Clark came in and sat down at the table next to me.  Sure, he was Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, and a former candidate himself, but I was looking for the big fish, and she never came.

And so, it was off to the auditorium.  

There were at least as many media members as there were voters crammed into the room. And not just Schlubs like me.  Candy Crowley from CNN, Chris Wallace from Fox, and my personal favorite, Joe Klein from Time Magazine, were all standing a few feet away. I had a few questions about the size of the turnout, but apparently, they were at capacity inside the gym and there were about 150 people who had to be turned away at the door.

Before Hillary took the stage, the PA played music. 

 Basically, it sounded like your dentist put his IPOD on shuffle.  Lots of un-offensive pop hits to get the crowd jazzed up.  No, Mr. Kravitz, I will not be going your way.  But thanks for asking.  The Senator was introduced by a woman who said she's an independant and a former John Edwards supporter who has recently changed her thinking.  She gave an uneventful speech, though at one point, she made an odd reference to the Kennedy Assassination.  Then, finally, Hillary took the stage.  And I must admit, I was a bit surprised.  It wasn't the same old stump speech we've heard over and over again.  It still had some of the elements, but with a twist.  Finishing third in Iowa will do that too you.  Barack Obama was never mentioned by name, but she sure did a number on his record.

Then, she took questions.  One on Non-profits, one on South American Policy, health care, etc etc etc...

Talking to some voters afterwards, you get the sense that most people are still unsure.  One thing worth pointing out, though.  People have places to be.  Obama was two hours late for an event yesterday, and Hillary was about an hour late today.  That rubbed a lot of people the wrong way.

Now, earlier, Senator Clinton apparently broke down a bit during an appearance.  That wasn't this one, and the fact is, I didn't know about it until I called into the 1010 WINS newsroom and someone told me about it.  So, even when your on the road to the White House, you still miss a few sites along the way.

1/7/2008

Enough already.  I just took a cursory look at the candidates' schedule for the day, and it seems that Chuck Norris is appearing alongside Mike Huckabee at every single event.  It was cute when they released this ad a couple of months ago, because Huckabee was a second tier candidate looking for attention.  But then he picked up steam, became big-time, and won Iowa.  And now it's time to call it a day on the Walker Texas Ranger front. Maybe his staff is starstruck, or maybe they can't tell the difference between something being ironic hipster cool, and actually relevant. Either way, it's starting to get a little stale.

(screen capture from worldnetdaily.com)


1/6/2008

Greetings from Manchester, New Hampshire.  And say hello to the official vehicle of "Talking Politics". It's a Mazda3.  
Zoom Zoom. 

We're staying at the lovely Highlander Inn, next to the airport.  It's very nice, but every time a plane takes off or lands, it sounds like Shea Stadium.
 

There is no way to avoid politics in this town.  The candidates' signs are piled 5 deep at every intersection.


On the way to dinner, I drove between what appeared to be competing rallies between the Ron Paul supporters and the Dennis Kucinich groupies.  What were they fighting about? Hemp, from the looks of them.

This is just an initial impression, but the people here may be too politically savvy for their own good.  From the conversations I've had with New Hampshire-ites (?), it seems like a lot of them are supporting candidates based on electability, and not neccessarily because they share their views.  That turns the media predictions into self-fulfilling prophecies, and takes a lot of the fun out of this whole thing.

(the highlander picture is from allposters.com)

1/4/2008

One last cable from 1010 WINS reporter Al Jones. as he gets out of Dodge, I mean Des Moines:

ONE DOWN, 49 TO GO, AS THE CANDIDATES SPRINT OUT OF IOWA AS FAST AS YOU CAN SAY NEW HAMPSHIRE.  IN THEIR WAKE, POLITICS-WEARY RESIDENTS WHO WENT TO CAUCUSES IN RECORD NUMBERS, WITH SOME SURPRISES.  MIKE HUCKABEE UPSETS THE ROMNEY MACHINE AND OBAMA KNOCKS CLINTON TO THIRD.

ATTENDED MY SECOND IOWA CAUCUS AND STILL FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE THIS IS HOW PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES ARE SELECTED IN THE 21ST CENTURY.    207 REGISTERED DEMOCRATS IN THIS NORTH DES MOINES PRECINCT SITTING AT HIGH SCHOOL CAFETERIA TABLES HOLDING UP THEIR HANDS TO BE COUNTED, AND THEN BREAKING UP INTO GROUPS SUPPORTING THE CANDIDATES.  IF YOUR CANDIDATE CAN'T GARNER 15 % OF THE TOTAL IN THE ROOM, IN THIS CASE 32 SUPPORTERS, THEN YOU HAVE TO PICK AGAIN.  IN THE END, OBAMA AND CLINTON GOT ALL 7 DELEGATES UP FOR GRABS.....CLINTON DID ALOT BETTER THERE THAN IN IOWA AS A WHOLE. 

HARD TO BELIEVE 350 THOUSAND IOWANS SET UP THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE FOR 35O MILLION AMERICANS.  AND IF YOU FIND YOURSELF SAYING WHY SHOULD I LISTEN TO WHAT A BUNCH OF FARMERS SAY.....WELL, ITS BECAUSE THEY HAVE THE FIRST SAY.

IF YOU MISSED OBAMA'S SPEECH, ITS WORTH A YOU TUBE LISTEN.....HE'S GOOD.  AND DOES IT SAY SOMETHING ABOUT OUR COUNTRY THAT A STATE THAT IS OVERWHELMINGLY WHITE CAN GIVE AN OVERWHELMING WIN TO A FRESHMAN SENATOR WHO IS BLACK?  MAYBE THATS THE CHANGE THESE DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN TOUTING.

AL JONES, 1010 WINS, IN DES MOINES ON THE ROAD TO THE WHITE HOUSE

So, that's it from Iowa.  Starting Sunday, I'll be in New Hamsphire.  Keep checking  back for entries from the Granite State.




1/3/2008

What does Mike Huckabee have in common with the band A-Ha?

Its not just his bass playing ability.  There's a chance the former Arkansas Governor may be headed for one hit wonder status.

He's the big winner in Iowa, but what does that really mean?

Let's put the caucuses into some historical perspective. Do they serve as an arbiter of things to come?  Not so much.

Of the 8 contested democratic caucusses held since 1972, the winner has gone on to win his party's nomination four times.  Not such a great percentage.  And look at some of the names who have come out on top.  Tom Harkin in 1992, Dick Gephardt in 1988, and the world famous two time winner "uncommitted" who came out on top in '76 and ties with Edmund Muskie in '72.

The Republican winners in Iowa have better percentage of success, though candidates have run unopposed three times.  But check out the luminaries who have finished second over the years.  Steve Forbes and his flat tax took 30 percent of the vote in 2000.  Pat Buchanan won 23% in '96 and 25% in '88.  Both of them went on to do nothing in the rest of the country.

So, don't be surprised if Mike Huckabee slowly fades away over the next few weeks and months, before we ultimately spot him again in a few years, playing the bass solo from "Take on Me"


1/3/2008

How about another update from 1010 wins reporter Al Jones in Des Moines:

Thursday broke like any normal January day in Des Moines:  Temperatures struggling to get out of single digits, sun peaking through thin clouds.  But this is THE DAY, the day for which political weary Iowans have been waiting.  Its time to caucus. 

The first question is why...why caucus?   Why not vote in a primary?    Here in a nutshell is how a caucus works:  Republicans gather, put their candidates name in a hat, the slips of paper are counted, reported to Des Moines, and announced. EASY.  Democrats, on the other hand, do it a bit differently.  At 7p, the doors are closed and people gather in groups supporting the different candidates.  If a group contains less than 15% of the total gathered for this particular caucus, those folks have to make a second choice.  Once the groups are established, they are counted, and a preference is announced.   The tally is again done in Des Moines.  Republicans can be done in a half hour....Democrats can go several hours.  The result is the same;  candidates in both parties leave ranked first to last by the folks in Iowa. 

A couple of quirks......once the doors close, democratic caucus goers who leave can't come back inside.  This prevents supporters of minor candidates from simply going to another caucus.  The other thing is historically, it isn't very accurate in choosing the eventual winner.  Iowans only get it right about half of the time.

I chose to attend a democrat caucus at North High School in Des Moines because that party's strange process is  indeed fun to watch.  It must be how the pilgrams chose their leaders.  There is some debate, some of it emotional, but in the end,  civilized. 

One note on media coverage.....it is HUGE.  The Polk County Convention Center in downtown Des Moines is the hub.....downstairs, radio and tv stations and networks from around the globe eagerly await the results.  I was in the ABC Radio area, next door to Al Jazeera, NHK (japan) and Channel 9 (Australia).   Print reporters are in an entirely different area.  Upstairs, the conventional hall has been turned into a giant tv studio, with camera crews from around the world, reports in a dozen languages and everyone standing in front of a huge screen announcing results.  No wonder Iowans like their standing as first in the country.  Do you think all these media outlets would gather in Des Moines if the caucuses were held in May? 

Al Jones 1010 WINS in Des Moines, on the long and bumpy road to the White House

1/2/2008

LOGISTICS!!!!

You think this is glamorous?  It's not.

Think about the poor souls who were assigned to cover John Edwards the last couple of days.  The former Senator is in the midst of a 36 hour non-stop campaign blitz.  That includes middle of the night speeches in some of the farthest flung locations in Iowa.  It also means no sleep, no showers, and a lot of reheated coffee.

But at least they've made it to the Hawkeye State.  Allow me to present the tale of 1010 WINS reporter Al Jones, and his journey from Connecticut to Des Moines:

AS LONG AS THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL CAN GET.....MY TRIP TO DES MOINES FELT EQUALLY LONG.   LEAVING NEW YORK ON TUESDAY, I ARRIVED AT THE AIRPORT IN HARTFORD FOR A 10:30 FLIGHT.  IT WAS CANCELED DUE TO WEATHER IN CHICAGO.  THE 1:20 BECAME A 2:OO, AND AFTER TWO HOURS OF WAITING ON THE RUNWAY, IT WAS BACK TO THE FAMILIAR GATE.  MECHANICAL PROBLEMS.  BY THEN GETTING TO DES MOINES WAS OUT OF THE QUESTION, SO I TRIED TO GET CLOSE.  CHICAGO.  HARTFORD TO RALIEGH-DURHAM TO CHICAGO.  BUILDING THOSE FREQUENT FLYER MILES.  WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND THEY DELAYED THE FLIGHT TO DES MOINES DUE TO MECHANICAL PROBLEM (I'M THINKING I'D BE BETTER OFF GOING TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WAITING FOR THE VOTE TO COME TO ME).  FINALLY TOUCHING DOWN AT NOON IN FROZEN, SNOW COVERED DES MOINES ON A JET WITH 48 SEATS, AT LEAST A THIRD FILLED WITH OTHER MEMBERS OF THE MEDIA. (IT OCCURS TO ME I HIT THE HOME STATES OF THE THREE TOP DEMOCRATS, CLINTON-NEW YORK, EDWARDS-NORTH CAROLINA, OBAMA-ILLINOIS)   DES MOINES IS A CITY OF ABOUT 200 THOUSAND PEOPLE, MOST OF WHICH HAVE BEEN CONTACTED BY A SUPPORTER OF ONE CANDIDATE OR ANOTHER.  THERE IS A WEARY QUALITY TO THEIR ANSWERS WHEN I BRING UP THE CAUCUS, BUT MOST ARE VERY PROUD OF THEIR STATE'S ROLE AS THE FIRST.  EVEN IF FEW UNDERSTAND THE CAUCUS SYSTEM.  FOLKS SAY FRIDAY, THINGS RETURN TO NORMAL.  OTHER THINGS WILL CHANGE AS WELL......STORE FRONTS HOUSING CAMPAIGN OFFICES DOWNTOWN WILL EMPTY, HOTELS WON'T BE ABLE TO PAD THEIR ROOM RATES, BILLBOARDS WILL BE STRIPPED, YARDS EMPTY OF CAMPAIGN SIGNS AND LOCAL TV AND RADIO WILL HAVE TO WEAN ITSELF FROM THE POLITICAL ADS THAT HAVE FATTENED THE BOTTOM LINE.  AFTER WATCHING LOCAL TV, WHAT WILL THEY RUN IN PLACE OF THE WALL TO WALL POLITICAL ADS?  TWO THINGS I WANT TO DO BEFORE I LEAVE IOWA; HAVE A LOOSE MEAT SANDWICH, AND VISIT PRESIDENT HOOVER'S BIRTHPLACE.  I'M A SIMPLE MAN. 

AL JONES IN DES MOINES 

Imagine spending more than 24 hours traveling to get someplace.. and when its all said and done, the place you end up at is Des Moines, Iowa.



1/1/2008

You still don't know who to vote for?  What's the matter with you?  It's not like you haven't been given the opportunity to hear from the candidates.  There have been like 3 dozen Presidential hopefuls criss-crossing the nation, trying to convince you why they're the best person for the job.  But, maybe that's the problem.It's had to figure out what your hearing, when the racket never ceases.

Well, there's good news coming down the pike. David Letterman is on his way back.  So is Jay Leno, Conan O'Brien, and Jimmy Kimmell.  The Late Night shows will air their first new episodes in almost two months Wednesday night.  Leno even has Mike Huckabee on.

This has been an under-publicized effect of the Writer's Strike.  Even though some people may not want to admit it, the Late Night Hosts play a very important role in the American political process.  And it's not only monologue jokes, either.  The programs give candidates a chance to seperate themselves from their stump speeches and present themselves as human beings.  We'll see if Huckabee can do that Wednesday Night.

(pictures from abc.com)

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